The Cyber 2025 Model is rooted in analysis that provides a baseline for potential scenarios that could result from policy choices. Specifically, it builds on historical data of 80 countries from 1990 through 2012 to create 2025 forecasts employing key indicator categories of macroeconomic, socio-demographic, and technology conditions.
The indicators were modeled using two different regression types: linear panel data approach and non-linear S curve approach.2 More than 100 different potential predictive indicators and thousands of indicator combinations were tested to generate the most statistically significant results.
Ultimately, the Cyber 2025 Model delivered several layers of analysis:
- Baseline forecasts for 80 countries derived from the finalized econometric models
- Optimistic and pessimistic forecasts for each baseline prediction that reflect economically meaningful deviations based on historical country-level fluctuations and long-term trends
- Key predictive indicators that contribute to the development of each model.